Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 354
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 354 · BNA → JAX
departs 3:11 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.58 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.