Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3581 · SAN → SFO
departs 4:46 PM PT · arrives 6:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.