Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3594 · RNO → LAS
departs 5:21 PM PT · arrives 6:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/31 50%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±8 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.