Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3638 · SAN → AUS
departs 4:18 PM PT · arrives 9:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.