Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3643 · LAS → SAT
departs 7:21 PM PT · arrives 12:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SAT that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.