Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3683 · GEG → OAK
departs 2:06 PM PT · arrives 4:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
↓
GEG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.