Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3695
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3695 · SAN → STS
departs 9:29 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Arrivals into STS at that hour are usually not late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
STS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.