Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3740 · LAS → SJC
departs 4:13 PM PT · arrives 5:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.