Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3814
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3814 · SJC → LAS
departs 9:26 PM PT · arrives 11:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±11 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.