Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3831 · SNA → SJC
departs 7:56 PM PT · arrives 9:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.26 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.