Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3841 · DAL → SMF
departs 10:01 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DAL that day
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.