Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3843 · SMF → LAX
departs 4:16 PM PT · arrives 5:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.