Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3845 · SMF → PDX
departs 7:11 PM PT · arrives 8:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PDX that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.