Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3851 · SJC → SNA
departs 4:25 PM PT · arrives 5:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/1
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from SJC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.