Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3854 · DEN → COS
departs 9:47 PM MT · arrives 10:36 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.