Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3856 · TPA → IND
departs 9:51 PM ET · arrives 12:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.54 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,233 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.