Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3864 · SJU → MCO
departs 8:26 PM AT · arrives 10:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 26%
Thu 11/5 31%
Fri 11/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.