Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3869 · BUR → SJC
departs 7:06 PM PT · arrives 8:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.