Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3872
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3872 · SJC → SAN
departs 3:11 PM PT · arrives 4:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.