Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3886 · ABQ → PHX
departs 9:41 PM MT · arrives 11:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
84%
chance · ±9 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
84%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
ABQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.45 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.