Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Today
WN 3906 · SMF → BUR
departs 8:31 PM PT · arrives 10:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/2 30%
Thu 11/5 44%
Fri 11/6 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.