Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3914
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3914 · TPA → SAN
departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 8:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
8%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
43%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.