Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3917
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 3917 · STL → ECP
departs 4:06 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from STL are often late
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.14 in
ECP (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.