Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 3974 · SMF → SEA
departs 10:02 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 44%
Wed 11/4 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.