Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4005 · SJC → LGB
departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 4:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGB that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Arrivals into LGB at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.