Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4006
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4006 · SNA → PHX
departs 8:22 PM PT · arrives 10:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sat 10/31 48%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Thu 11/5 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
73%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
73%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
0.4 in of rain forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.