Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4014 · SNA → SJC
departs 5:44 PM PT · arrives 7:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 23%
Wed 11/4 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.30 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.