Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4015 · IND → SRQ
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SRQ usually runs smoothly
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.04 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.