Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4030
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4030 · RDU → TPA
departs 7:21 PM ET · arrives 9:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.