Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4031 · SAN → MSY
departs 2:26 PM PT · arrives 8:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.