Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4044 · HNL → ITO
departs 1:31 PM HT · arrives 2:41 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ITO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ITO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at ITO that day
↑
1pm departures from HNL are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip none
ITO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.