Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4086 · STL → LGA
departs 7:46 PM CT · arrives 11:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 32%
Wed 11/4 32%
Thu 11/5 36%
Fri 11/6 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.