Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4099
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4099 · STL → MDW
departs 9:44 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 21%
Wed 11/4 30%
Thu 11/5 29%
Fri 11/6 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.