Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 40
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 40 · DAL → TUS
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 7:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 99%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 45%
Thu 11/5 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.72 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.