Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4114
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4114 · STL → PHX
departs 9:39 PM CT · arrives 12:17 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 28%
Thu 11/5 29%
Fri 11/6 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±8 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 1.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.