Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4130 · STL → TPA
departs 7:48 PM CT · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 31%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.