Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4170 · TPA → HOU
departs 8:14 PM ET · arrives 9:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 29%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.84 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.