Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4177 · DEN → SAN
departs 9:56 PM MT · arrives 11:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.77 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.