Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4180
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4180 · TPA → MDW
departs 4:38 PM ET · arrives 6:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 25%
Wed 11/4 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.