Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4181 · TPA → MDW
departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MDW that day
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.