Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 418 · AUS → SAN
departs 10:24 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.