Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4192
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4192 · AUS → HOU
departs 8:41 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 33%
Tue 11/3 46%
Wed 11/4 42%
Thu 11/5 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.