Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4196 · TPA → SJU
departs 8:41 PM ET · arrives 12:45 AM AT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.54 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.