Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4230 · SAN → LAS
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 36%
Wed 11/4 22%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed – in 24h
–
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.44 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.