Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4241 · SAN → OAK
departs 3:08 PM PT · arrives 4:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.63 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.