Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 424 · SNA → DEN
departs 7:46 PM PT · arrives 11:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.26 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.