Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4253
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4253 · DEN → PHL
departs 7:04 PM MT · arrives 12:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1
Tue 11/3 44%
Wed 11/4 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.