Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow
WN 4263 · SAN → LAS
departs 7:01 PM PT · arrives 8:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.