Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4264 · SAN → SJC
departs 6:06 PM PT · arrives 7:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 37%
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.56 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.