Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4272
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4272 · SAN → SMF
departs 6:12 PM PT · arrives 7:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.